“Iran demonstrated that it will not hesitate to directly attack Israel. The Israelis will have to consider this before future attacks against Iranian military commanders, diplomatic facilities, and other Iranian interests in Syria and elsewhere,” Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO and founder of [Persian] Gulf State Analytics, told IRNA’s correspondent in New York.
The following is the transcript of the conversation:
How do you evaluate Iran’s response to Israel’s missile attack on Tehran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, in the form of a large-scale military operation?
After years of Israel killing high-ranking figures in Iran’s military and, most recently, razing Iran’s diplomatic building in Damascus, Tehran felt it needed to strike Israel directly in a mostly symbolic way that was not designed to result in much blood being spilled. The Iranian leadership’s concern was that had Israel obliterated the Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria without paying a price, Israel would feel emboldened to carry out more military operations against Iranian military commanders, facilities, and interests in the Middle East.
Waging this missile and drone attack against Israel was a bold move on the Islamic Republic’s part. The action was risky. In this upcoming period, we will see how Israel and its Western backers respond and, ultimately, what price Tehran will pay for this retaliatory attack against Israel. Nonetheless, it seems difficult to dismiss the fact that Iran’s “street cred” in Arab countries will likely enjoy a major boost after its attack on Israel. Arab governments, however, are likely to see this move by Iran as dangerous and it will be important to monitor how the fallout impacts the Iranian-Saudi détente.
According to you, given Iran’s missile and drone deterrence and after 46 years of strategic patience against the Israeli regime, what does Tehran’s direct response mean for the Israeli regime, Western and regional governments and especially the US administration?
Iran demonstrated that it will not hesitate to directly attack Israel. The Israelis will have to consider this before future attacks against Iranian military commanders, diplomatic facilities, and other Iranian interests in Syria and elsewhere. There is an onus on the Biden administration to make decisions about when and how to use Washington’s leverage to pressure Israel into restraining itself. Without US support, Israel is quite limited in terms of what actions it can take militarily, so in this upcoming period, the White House will be responsible for important decisions that could have a huge impact on the Middle East’s future. The most important thing now for all parties, including the United States, Iran, members of the European Union, and Arab countries, is to push for a ceasefire in Gaza. Of course, a ceasefire in Gaza will not solve all the problems in the Middle East, but it is critical to de-escalate and prevent regional crises from spiraling out of control.
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